ISI’s Success in Afghanistan will become the reason for Debacle in Pakistan

Just a few days ago, Pakistan’s spy chief Faiz Hamid was having tea at the Serena Hotel in Kabul as he mediated between the Taliban and the ruling Afghan government. “Everything will be fine,” he said on the future of Afghanistan. A few days later, a few bearded cavemen were appointed to the high positions, all of whom had sought refuge in the Pakistani state for almost two decades, while Pakistan was refusing all allegations of them doing such a thing.

Since Hamid helped the nominated terrorists become the country’s top leaders, he showed little concern about what the West would think of him. Instead, he toured Kabul, with a winner’s confidence. He and his colleagues want to create their own client state in Afghanistan and they are constantly pushing the Taliban to prick India.

The deep state of Pakistan has indeed ensured such a desperately extended strategic reach against India and will use Afghan territory as a safe haven for anti-India terrorist groups, as the last time the Taliban was in power. Pakistan has also succeeded in proving its worthiness to the Chinese and ensuring security between them. Beijing wants to spend billions of dollars on mining in the war-torn country and building economic corridors to Central Asia via Pakistan and Afghanistan.

But what is considered an achievement for Pakistan’s political institutions could prove to be a tragedy for the people of Pakistan. There are growing reasons to be concerned about the security risks of homes next to the Islamic Emirate. Meanwhile, the voices of those who want to impose universal Sharia rule in Pakistan will become louder.

Decades of active Islamization have turned a large number of Pakistanis to a more religious outlook, changing the social outlook of a culturally diverse society. As the Taliban unleashes their own special brand of Islamism in Afghanistan, it is inevitable that Pakistan will become even more radical.

A Pakistani security analyst said the more inspiration Pakistani seeks from the Taliban, the harder it will be to deal with statements promoting religious states and society. “The Taliban will be the only source of inspiration for the confused Pakistani youth,” he said. “Religious parties are already celebrating. This will make Pakistan more Taliban. The growing popularity of the Taliban will also make other non-Sunni communities feel insecure. These tensions could escalate into communal tensions, ”and make society more intolerant.

The Taliban may be an asset to Pakistan’s political establishment in its anti-India efforts, but it is doubtful whether the strategic benefits will extend further. According to a Pakistani source who did not want to be named, Pakistan could give the United States a base for fighting the Islamic State-Khorasan and the TTP. It is trying to present itself as a mediator between the West and the Taliban. But many in the West believe that Pakistan is no longer committed. Pakistan’s sanctuary to the Taliban has soured relations with the United States so much that US President Joe Biden has never called Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Moreover, there are signs that the Taliban may be less inclined to follow the orders of their main patron that Pakistan expects, at least to maintain a pretence of independence in front of the Afghans. Pakistan is extremely unpopular in Afghanistan, and the Taliban are wary of being seen as its puppet. They are already reluctant to accept key Pakistani security issues when it comes to supporting and handing over anti-Pakistan terrorists. “We are not puppets of Pakistan, we are independent,” said a Taliban leader from Kabul, speaking on condition of anonymity. “And yes, we have very good relations with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.” But in the last few days, the Taliban is facing extreme infight between them and their co-fighter group Haqqani, which is more deary to Pakistan than them. Now when the rumours of Mullah Baradar’s death is going around, which, if true, is a result of the gunfight between the Taliban and Haqqani on the day Pakistani ISI chief Gen Faiz Hamid visited Kabul, the Taliban will surely try to make it even. Otherwise, their grip on the people of Afghanistan will be lost and Haqqani will emerge as the strongest one.

Members of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) were trained in the Afghan Taliban camps. The group, however, was made up of Pashtun Islamists. It carried out some horrific attacks against Pakistanis, even killing schoolgirls and was eventually pushed by the Pakistani Armed Forces into Afghanistan. But in the past year, when their Afghan comrades began a campaign to retake Afghanistan, the TTP’s attacks intensified again. It carried out 32 attacks inside Pakistan last month. The TTP is evidence of a domestic blow to Pakistan’s policy, yet independent experts fear that the Generals see the dead Pakistanis as mere Collateral Damage and are reluctant to change their proxy war policy.

According to a recent report prepared for the UN Security Council, the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban have maintained “Primary Relations”. UN observers have noted that the TTP has recently backed the Afghan Taliban against Afghan Government Forces. “Pakistan has accused the elected Afghan government of supporting the TTP for so many years; but actually, the TTP has fought for the Afghan Taliban, ”said a Pakistani Pashtun leader and intellectual. “This is an indication of how far our deep state has followed the wrong policy.”

The TTP has moderated its position since the Taliban returned to power. It says, it now wants autonomy in the tribal areas along the border, the heartland of Pakistani Pashtuns, which they want to rule under Islamic law, just as their brothers will do across the border from now on. The Afghan Taliban did not specify their position in the TTP but said they wanted to go East, at least 140 miles from the border with Pakistan, which is inhabited by Pashtuns on both sides.

The whole idea behind supporting and perpetuating the Taliban was to secure Afghanistan with leadership that prioritizes its religious identity over its ethnic group and sees itself first as a Muslim, not an Afghan. An insecure deep state was confused about losing another part of the country, this time to Pashtun ethnic nationalism, as it lost East Pakistan to Bangladeshi nationalists in 1971.

Pakistan’s policy was to use the Taliban to destroy Afghan identity, to destroy everything that represents Afghanistan. Among the first things the Taliban did after coming to power in the 1990s were renaming Afghan Radio to Sharia Radio, destroying Buddha statues in Bamiyan, banning the celebration of Nowruz, a thousand-year-old festival, changing the Afghan flag, and holding Talibani courts in public. The Taliban suppressed Afghan nationalism and exercised complete and extreme Islamization of Afghanistan. Over the years, it has also attacked Pakistan’s secular Pashtun nationalists. But over time, they have also seen the exploitative side of its Pakistani handlers. The Taliban know that Pakistan has huge economic advantages over landlocked Afghanistan, but as they establish themselves in power, they may want to use the TTP as leverage against their masters who sheltered but abused many of their leaders.

Even if they stay away from a Pashtun separatist identity, ethnic relations will remain a cause of concern for Pakistani generals. Will Pakistan agree to keep the border open and actually hand over control to the TTP?

Pakistan’s liberals will continue to resist the Talibanization of Pakistan – although they have been in a weak position for decades now, it is clearly not important for the deep state of Pakistan. Nevertheless, the return of the Taliban could still be a victory for the deep state. The ideas that the Taliban held are also constantly crumbling to the foundations of a state that they believe is secure.