Nitish Stops the Shahi Rath – Campaign for 2024 Starts from Bihar

Former Chief Minister of Bihar, Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav once said about Mr Nitish Kumar
“उसके आंत में भी दांत हैं”

Bihar politics has turned around 360 degrees in the last 24 hours. Nitish Kumar has ditched the NDA alliance and resigned as the CM of Bihar. A rumour about a 7-Party Coalition Govt in Bihar is doing the rounds and that may become reality by the end of this day 09 Aug 2022. The home ministry, Deputy CM and the post of the Speaker may go to RJD.

The amusing part in this whole episode is that no one can make any allegation of jumping ships in Bihar. Nitish Kumar had already ditched RJD and aligned with BJP. RJD gave all the required issues to Nitish for him to break the alliance. BJP had already fueled the end of the RJD-JDU alliance and took Nitish onboard. So, no one is a saint in this story. Nitish ditching one and joining the other is not a new thing for Biharis. The only thing constant in the story is the CM post of Nitish Kumar. And that will still be the same in future alliances too. Tejaswi Yadav, who had called Nitish “पलटू चाचा” when he ditched RJD, has started calling Nitish “चाचाजी” again.

The process started sometimes back. The Bharatiya Janata Party has a special instrument for changing the political equation of a state where it is not in power. They call it “Operation Kamal”. After immense success in the North East and Maharastra in recent times, the BJP was in full swing to repeat the same in some other states, including Bihar. The Eknath Shinde of Bihar, chosen by the all in all of BJP, Mr Amit Shah, was Mr RCP Singh, former RS member and central minister from JDU. RCP Singh was the State Chief of JDU and is a very powerful leader of the party after Nitish Kumar.

But Nitish Kumar smelled the rat a long time ago. That is why RCP Singh was not given the ticket of RS this time. JDU chose Mahato from Jharkhand for Rajya Sabha. RCP Singh was left alone and a notice of “disproportionate assets” was served to him to lower his reputation in the community. RCP Singh was in contact with Mr Shah and breaking the party from inside was his job. He even managed to get the support of 06 MLAs and 02 ministers in JDU. This was the time when Nitish demanded resignation from RCP Singh as his name came up in corruption. Before RCP Singh could do anything like Maharastra in Bihar, Nitish Kumar made him a “No One” in the party. It seems Nitish followed the Maharastra episode minutely.

When Nitish saw that another ShivSena-like operation was evident with his party in Bihar, he decided to jump the ship. Nitish has years old experience in this. He did it so swiftly and seamlessly that BJP and specially Mr Amit Shah missed another “Masterstroke” they are known for, in their supporters’ circle. Nitish 1 Shah 0.

Some BJP supporters are still calling it a BIG Masterstroke. So big that no one has any idea on how to justify it as a masterstroke. Most of them do not even know that to stop JDU-RJD re-alliance, BJP and its think tank, better to call it think-reservoir, Mr Amit Shah had called and requested Tejaswi Yadav for an alliance with BJP which Tejaswi declined outrightly. What a Shame !!

Their Second logic behind calling it a Masterstroke is the declaration of Nitish Kumar to run for PM in the 2024 General Elections. These solid-headed supporters are saying that Modi-Shah gave the opposition their PM candidate in 2024 as Mamata Banerjee is not widely accepted as a PM candidate among the opposition parties. But they are not able to see the disaster it’s going to bring in for BJP, especially for their MOST IMPORTANT, ADORABLE MASTERSTROKE of all Masterstrokes in the history of BJP, the “Pasmanda”. BJP’s target of getting 15% Pasmanda votes will be severely hit if Nitish Kumar is the PM Face in 2024. Nitish 2 Shah 0.

I’ll tell you how. Muslims would have voted for BJP if Mamata was the PM face of the opposition in 2024. Because it is obvious that Hindus wouldn’t have voted for Mamata for her known-to-all love for the Muslims. So, Hindus would have voted for BJP only for this reason, if not for any other developments which BJP had done in its past two tenures. By keeping Mamata as the PM candidate, BJP would have forced Hindus to vote for them. And their “Pasmanda Politics” would have passed a test. It would have been easier for BJP if it was Modi Vs Mamata. But with Nitish as PM face, at least Bihar’s Pasmandas will choose Lalu’s RJD over Modi’s BJP.

Nitish Kumar is a very senior politician and experienced too. He could have done this way before President and Vice President Elections. But he waited for these elections to be over. There is a reason behind this too. If Nitish did so before the President’s Elections then a message would have gone to the BanaVasi or the tribal people that Nitish Kumar is anti-tribal. And if he did this before the VP election then it would have been a message to the people of Bengal that Nitish supports the post-poll violence in West Bengal. Nitish managed to avoid these by waiting till the elections of the President and the VP is over.

Now the Pasmandas of Bihar will definitely go with Lalu Yadav’s RJD. Other OBCs and many upper cast Biharis who are not so happy with BJP’s careless, apathetic behaviour towards Hindus, especially after their utter silence in Post-Poll Violence and in Nupur Sharma Case, may prefer to try Nitish for a change. That would not be a wise decision anyway, but voters’ psychology works that way. Nitish 3 Shah 0.

This incident will definitely change the politics in India before the 2024 elections. It’s a big hole in the hull of the giant ship. The ship can be saved if corrective measures are taken immediately. Here are some that came to my mind: