Ceasefire has been declared between Israel and Iran, with Donald Trump accepting this setback for the sake of trade. Once, he humiliated others to secure trade deals; now, he’s trading while enduring humiliation himself. This marks perhaps the darkest day in American foreign policy history. Yet, post-ceasefire, Trump appears to be gearing up for a new kind of conflict—one waged through a bill that could reshape global alliances.
This write-up isn’t about Iran or Israel. It’s about India, its Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, and, above all, Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The focus is on a bill that American senators are calling an “Economic Bunker Buster bomb.” Officially named the Sanctions on Russia Act of 2025, this legislation targets Russia but will hit India hardest. Three countries stand in its crosshairs: Russia, China, and India. While China and Russia don’t concern me—others can worry about them—my focus is India.
You might ask why a bill aimed at Russia would affect India. The answer lies in its design, which threatens to disrupt India’s economic ties and foreign policy. Russia has endured U.S. sanctions for years without buckling. Trump challenged China and backed down. That’s why my concern is India, a nation that could face severe consequences if this bill passes.
Senator Lindsey Graham announced in the U.S. Senate that this sanctions bill, described as an “Economic Bunker Buster,” is in the works. In an NBC News interview, he clarified that it could be the most aggressive U.S. sanctions legislation against Russia yet, with India and China also in its scope. Graham argued it’s necessary to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate, particularly over the Ukraine war. But whether Russia negotiates or not, what will this mean for India?
The bill’s core is simple yet devastating: any country trading with Russia will face a 500% U.S. tariff. If India imports oil from Russia, every Indian export to the U.S. will be hit with a 500% tax, effectively wiping out India’s exports. China, which imports oil, gas, uranium, and rare earth metals from Russia, will also be affected. When Europe stopped buying from Russia, India stepped in, importing crude oil, refining it, and selling it to Europe, easing their energy crisis. But India’s close ties with Russia are increasingly frustrating the U.S.
Who will shape India’s foreign policy? The U.S. Commerce Secretary once told Indian leaders, “If you maintain friendship with Russia, buy from them, or make deals with them, how can you expect U.S. friendship?” Yet, no one in India countered, “If you hold our hand in friendship, how can you ally with Pakistan?” The U.S. is targeting India and China because they believe these nations are sustaining Russia despite sanctions.
China has been unfazed by U.S. sanctions on Iran, continuing to buy oil and sell goods through a thriving trade corridor. Likewise, its trade with Russia remains unaffected. If the U.S. imposes a 500% tariff on Chinese exports, America will suffer more, as it relies heavily on Chinese goods with no ready alternatives. This economic bunker buster will likely be like the bomb dropped on Iran’s Fordo nuclear facility: a loud explosion, a crater, but no real damage. China will shrug it off, but India is my concern, as it, alongside China, consistently engages with Russia.
When the U.S. imposed 100% tariffs on China, China retaliated, and America relented. If China halts exports to the U.S., it can tap other markets. But who can match China’s export rates to the U.S.? The U.S. will hurt itself as much as others. Now, consider India. We’ve long bought military equipment from Russia, our traditional partner. We export to and import from Russia, especially oil, since the Ukraine war and ensuing sanctions. But Trump’s administration blacklisted tanker suppliers and logistics agencies in Hong Kong, UAE, and Singapore that facilitated Russia’s oil trade. Since March, India has struggled to secure tankers, stalling our oil imports.
If India severs ties with Russia under this bill’s pressure, who will be our reliable partner? Can we trust the U.S., a nation driven by profit? Trump summoned Modi and declared, “We used to do business at a loss. No more. Your trade with the U.S. will benefit America.” This means India must import more from the U.S. and export less. Despite this, the U.S. slapped a 25% tariff on Indian Steel and Aluminium. What must India buy from America? Oil, minerals, and whatever the U.S. wants to offload, like F-35 jets. If we buy from Russia, the U.S. threatens us. But if we stop exporting to the U.S. and face a 500% tariff, what does India lose?
When Atal Bihari Vajpayee conducted the Pokhran nuclear tests, U.S. sanctions followed, but India emerged unscathed, progressing under global support, including from Russia. Today, the U.S. seeks to discipline Russia by leveraging India and China. But once Russia is dealt with, where will India stand? Who can we rely on? Surrounded by hostile nations—Pakistan, with its relentless provocations, and China, influencing Myanmar, Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka—who is our ally? The U.S., which failed Qatar and forced Israel into a ceasefire, abandoning it in distress? Will it aid India or exploit us?
Consider the technicalities. Trump has openly expressed affection for Pakistan, saying, “I love Pakistan.” If he prioritises Pakistan, where does India fit? U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo noted Trump’s anger over India and China’s trade with Russia. Can we trust the U.S.? Should we reject their influence and trade with Russia, even at the cost of a 500% tariff? Weak leadership is the issue. When leaders waver, this is the result.
China and Russia trade in rubles and yuan, immune to U.S. sanctions. India was trading with Russia in rupees, but stopped. Why? Our currency lacks strength. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman claims, “Our currency isn’t weakening; the dollar is strengthening,” endorsing the dollar over the rupee. We must scrutinise our government. Sitharaman, a JNU alumna, tarnishes its reputation with such statements. How did she pass her exams, supposedly in political science? Her economic expertise is questionable—her husband has already critiqued her handling of budgets, from household to national.
Russia refuses to trade with us in rupees. We’re caught between worlds. By prioritising the dollar and the U.S., we faltered in the Iran-Israel conflict, fleeing when we should have stood firm. We’re broadcasting to the world that we dance to Trump’s tune. If so, Trump will dictate India’s economic and foreign policies. I’ve argued that it’s not Trump but Gautam Adani who holds sway. Wherever Adani stumbles, India is compromised to save him. Trump knows the Modi-Adani relationship better than most.
The U.S. holds a powerful weapon: Adani’s arrest warrant. One press, and India complies. Why hasn’t anyone said this openly? I see slogans like “Modi hai toh mumkin hai.” I’ve never seen a leader discourage investment in another country. Trump told Apple not to expand in India but in the U.S. Yet, we remain close to America, even as they impose tariffs, sell us overpriced goods, or push junk. What leverage does the U.S. have that makes India dance like a bear to its drum? Is it Adani?
This government doesn’t bow to the U.S. solely because of Modi. India has progressed under every administration—whether Deve Gowda, Morarji Desai, Rajiv Gandhi, or Vajpayee—thanks to farmers, workers, and industrialists. But in the past, industries weren’t coerced. Competition was fair. Now, the government operates on contracts. Need an airport? It’s arranged. An airline? Notices are issued to competitors, and it’s sold to the chosen one. Adani’s empire has grown through such strong-arm tactics.
At Adani’s recent AGM, he claimed to work for the nation, not himself. But his “nation” is Mumbai’s airport, Dharavi, Adani Energy, Adani Logistics, and Adani Ports—not India’s farmers or workers. The farm bills were designed to benefit Adani-like figures, not farmers, 700 of whom died protesting. They don’t matter to Adani’s India, which includes journalists who hail him as a development icon and media outlets he owns.
Why does India submit to the U.S.? Modi’s personality suggests he doesn’t bow easily. But when your hand is trapped under a rock, you comply. Modi endures humiliation for one man: Gautam Adani. This bill will distance India from Russia, but there’s still time. India’s lion—the voice of 1.4 billion—can roar, toppling American companies. A 15-day Maggi ban nearly sank Nestlé. Many foreign firms rely on India. Courage is all we need.
If Modi prioritises the nation, we’ll support him. But where the country’s interests are harmed, we’ll speak out, regardless of who it offends. The Sanctions on Russia Act of 2025 will likely fizzle like the bombs on Iran—harmless to Russia and China. But India is already subdued. How much more can we bear? I pity Senator Graham’s words: this bill will be an economic bunker buster for India, too. How much further can a nation already at your feet be pushed?
Hope in this system is scarce. Delhi’s new Chief Minister, Rekha Gupta, claimed, “Before 2014, India was a land of snake charmers. Modi changed that.” Such leaders thrive on blind devotion. If that love were for the nation, we’d be in a better state. Was Gupta’s education, or her children’s, only post-2014? Did she study in England before?
Journalists must discuss this bill widely; mainstream media won’t. China and Russia will manage—they’re capable. India needs willpower. The only willpower required is for Modi to let go of Adani’s influence. If he speaks, that influence wanes, and Adani will demand compensation. That’s why Modi, Jaishankar, and others stay silent. The U.S. will do as it pleases.
This bill could cost India around $100 billion—a staggering loss. A detailed analysis of its impact could fill hours. Even if a few notice, we must address it, as its technical implications are dire for India.
